fx trading

The last week has seen a spate of positive developments in the financial markets, including reassurances by several bulge bracket investment banks that their respective capital positions are in strong and in no need of shoring up. As a result, some analysts are speculating that the worst of the credit crunch has already been priced into securities and the USD, and that actual write-downs on subprime mortgage obligations won't match the "Himalaya-like guesstimates." At the same time, job losses are mounting and the unemployment rate recently crossed 5% for the first time in two years. Interest rate futures contracts suggest a 20% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at its meeting on April 30. Then, there is the ECB, which has been vocal about fighting inflation and European financial markets, which have benefited from "domestic" investors diversifying within the EU rather than to the US. Thus, there is no definitive answer regarding where the Dollar is headed in the near-term: everyone seems to have their own opinion. Bloomberg News reports:
The Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York, which tracks the currency against those of six trading partners, dropped 0.2 percent to 72.049, its third straight decline. It was at a record low of 70.698 on March 17.